The Pats have one of the best pressure units in the NFL, with Matt Judon leading a group that is terrorizing opposing passers. (Allen, like all quarterbacks, tends to perform worse under pressure.) The Buffalo offensive line has not held up particularly well against blitzes this year, allowing pressure on more than 41% of blitzed dropbacks. His EPA per dropback has been cut in half (from 0.14 to 0.07) when the opponent has sent at least one extra rusher after him, according to TruMedia. Belichick has used this style of defense against other pass-happy opponents before, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him utilize it again here.īut Belichick also knows that Allen has been somewhat vulnerable to the blitz. As such, opponents have taken to utilizing the types of soft zone coverages that gave the Chiefs so much trouble earlier in the season, essentially daring the Bills to run the ball with the likes of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and (more recently) Matt Breida. The big question here is how Bill Belichick wants to make the Bills beat his defense.īuffalo wants to throw the ball as often as possible, and just about every opposing defense knows that. If that's the tack the Bills take, it would play into the hands of Jones and his receiving corps, who are better at finding soft spots than creating separation against man coverage. That may not be advisable in this particular matchup, but it would only be natural for a defense to adjust to the loss of its best coverage player by going a bit more conservative. 1 cornerback Tre'Davious White, it'll be interesting to see if McDermott gets a bit less aggressive with his coverage tactics. (Along with the fact that he is put in position to succeed by his play-calling and offensive line, which is always helpful.) Those traits tend to play up against teams that utilize the types of soft zones that have given many other quarterbacks trouble this season, but against which Jones has largely thrived. He doesn't have the elite arm strength needed to test opponents down the field against one-on-one perimeter coverage, but he makes up for that with his incredibly quick coverage diagnosis, decision-making, and release.
(His best performance of the year so far came against a Cleveland Browns defense that plays more Cover-4 than any team in the NFL, for what it's worth.)
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Of the three, Mac Jones has easily been at his best against Cover-4 so far this season, perhaps because it encourages the kind of underneath throws on which Jones excels. New England ranks almost exactly average in yards after contact this season (2.73 per carry compared with a league average of 2.77), though rookie Rhamondre Stevenson has shown an ability to do better (3.2 per carry) than his backfield mates and could therefore be New England's best option in this matchup.īuffalo tends to mix up its coverages in the passing game, utilizing each of Cover-1, Cover-3, and Cover-4 on at least 23% of snaps, per TruMedia. No other team has averaged more than 2.55 yards after contact per carry against Buffalo. The Colts averaged 4.74 yards after contact per carry, according to TruMedia the Titans averaged 5.95 per carry. The big differentiator in those two games was the work Taylor and Henry were able to do after first contact. By way of perspective, consider that all other players have combined for 735 yards and four touchdowns on 218 carries (3.4 per carry) against the Bills. Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry combined for 54 carries for 328 yards (6.1 per carry) and seven touchdowns on the ground in those two games. Those two teams are the only ones to score more than 23 against Sean McDermott's unit this year. The Indianapolis Colts dropped 41 points on Buffalo and the Tennessee Titans hung 34 on the Bills.
The two teams to experience the most offensive success against the Bills, though, are two of the most physical, run-based teams in the NFL. Entering Week 13, Buffalo ranks first in yards allowed per game, second in points allowed per game (more on the team that ranks first later in this post), first in EPA per play, and first in Football Outsiders' DVOA, with the fourth-ranked unit against the run and first-ranked unit against the pass. The Bills have been arguably the NFL's best defense in 2021.
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